Economic activity sees its sharpest monthly decline since Milei took office

The Argentine economy saw its sharpest monthly decline in February since December 2023, according to Argentina’s statistics institute INDEC. The governments statistics agency reported on Wednesday that the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) fell by 2.6% compared to January. It also hit its lowest level since July 2025. The driving factors for the drop were poor performance in key sectors, such as manufacturing, and the end of the wheat harvest. Year-on-year, economic activity fell by 2.1%, the worst figure since September 2024.  Most of the decline was attributed to 8.7% and 7% drops in the manufacturing and commerce sectors, respectively. Aggregate output remained 3.4% above the 20122015 average, but with a population that is 11% larger, stated a report by the Economic Research Department of Argentinas second-largest bank, Banco Provincia.  As a result, per capita GDP has fallen by nearly 6% over the past ten years.  The sectors that did well The main positive contributions came from the energy and mining sector (9.9% rise), agriculture (8.4%), and financial intermediation (6%).  However, the agricultural sector showed a slower growth rate than the double-digit increases seen in December and January. According to the latest INDEC Business Trend Survey, published on Tuesday, industrial business leaders did not express favorable expectations regarding production, employment, domestic demand, and exports through the middle of the year.  Insufficient domestic demand and competition from imported products emerged as the two most limiting factors for production. The government sought to downplay the poor INDEC data for February.  The underlying trend, as measured by the trend-cycle indicator, remained in positive territory with a monthly increase of 0.1%. This indicator has now recorded nearly two years of uninterrupted expansion, said Economy Minister Luis Caputo. With information from mbito