AmCham 2026 reflects the Argentine economy’s winners and losers

Tuesday’s United States Chamber of Commerce in Argentina (AmCham Argentina) summit in Buenos Aires gathered politicians and top business leaders. In her opening speech, María Schoua, the head of Amcham Argentina, said that agriculture “accounts for more than half of Argentina’s exports,”  that the country has the potential to become an energy “global supplier,” and that mining “could triple exports.” However, from what people attending the event told the Herald, other sectors are falling behind — and Argentina’s economy, under Javier Milei, has clear winners and losers. A representative for a mining company, who spoke under the condition of anonymity, told the Herald that he thought Economy Minister Luis Caputo’s speech was “correct,” and “aligned with reality.” The same person named 2024’s Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI, by its Spanish initials) and a recently passed reform easing the protection on glaciers are among the factors that could boost the economy and attract investors. But not everybody was so enthusiastic. A high-ranking executive of a major food manufacturer, also under the condition of anonymity, said that his company is barely breaking even, working on a month-to-month basis, and not planning annually. The businessperson added that, while premium products’ sales are rising, foodstuffs bought by popular sectors are falling. “The dual Argentina,” he added. Fixed costs, he said, are on the rise, but since consumption is dropping, companies do not pass them on to prices. The strategy consists of “selling more and gaining market share.” “If you don’t launch new products all the time, no matter how good you are —even if you have the Coca-Cola formula—you won’t sell,” he added. The executive said that the food manufacturing sector is urging the government to “reform the tax system,” which essentially remains untouched. Aside from companies that are already doing business in Argentina, some that are considering investing in the country attended the event. For example, there were representatives of Grupo México, a Mexican train and mining company, who are eyeing Belgrano Cargas — a recently privatized Argentine company that operates freight trains on three lines: Belgrano, San Martín, and Urquiza. Milei’s speech President Javier Milei was in charge of closing the summit. He gave a speech with dim light, no projections of his image on the big screens, and journalists confined to a small space without chairs in the last line. Scattered applause, mostly coming from the front row, crowned his jokes and yells.  He started by saying he would explain the growth of the inflation rate, which the official statistics institute published that day. Prices in March rose by 3.4%, the highest monthly figure in a year. He said that the rise in prices was due to a run on the peso that was due to his opposition in Congress passing “more than 40 laws aimed at disrupting the fiscal balance” last year, which he considered a “coup d’etat attempt.” A representative of a company in the energy sector called Milei’s speech “good,” while a high-ranking business network executive said it was “delirious.” Martín Kalos, an economist and director of the Epyca consulting firm, who attended the event, said that the speech “had all of his usual elements, but tried to dress itself up as academic to justify what’s happening with inflation.” Milei also said that seasonal factors like education, meat, and energy prices impacted the rate. Kalos said this explanation is overstretched, especially since inflation has actually been accelerating for about 10 consecutive months, starting around May, contradicting the government’s narrative. He said the president’s earlier success in lowering inflation relied on two “anchors”: a relatively fixed exchange rate and falling real wages. Once those factors reversed—wages recovering and the peso weakening—inflationary pressures returned.  Attempting to reuse the exchange rate as an anchor, Kalos warned, is unsustainable if markets don’t believe it reflects a real equilibrium. “Deep down, he’s avoiding saying what’s really going on — that the disinflation process is in pause,” he said.