Argentina’s favorite obsession wakes up: the dollar jumps more than 5% in June

After lying dormant through the first half of the year, the dollar that great Argentine obsession woke up in June, climbing more than 5% over the month to its highest level since October 2025. On June 30, the U.S. currency rose to 1,482 pesos on the wholesale market the one available to large companies, financial institutions and banks a monthly increase of 5.3%. In the retail segment, the rise was slightly smaller, at 4.9%, closing June at 1,500 pesos, according to the rate quoted by Banco Nacin, Argentina’s largest public bank. The blue dollar the rate sold on the informal market rose 6%, to 1,515 pesos on the sell side. These increases mark a significant shift from the first five months of the year, when the dollar traded between 1,350 and 1,450 pesos. Seasonal shifts Economist Federico Glustein told the Herald that “a seasonal factor of demand and hedging typical of June and July” explains the move. He pointed to the payment of the year-end bonus often channeled into dollar savings the dollars spent by Argentines who traveled to the World Cup and vacationed abroad, and “demand for dollars from companies and individuals for commercial purposes.” That’s happening alongside “an easing of supply that is also seasonal, especially in the second half of the year, with lower selling by the agricultural sector.” The bulk of Argentina’s farm output is sold abroad between March and June, when the largest inflow of dollars into the economy takes place. The brokerage Portfolio Personal Inversores (PPI), however, argued that the explanation doesn’t lie with farming. “The agro-export complex sold US$3.007 billion in June, equivalent to US$143 million a day, virtually in line with the US$141 million a day in May. In other words, supply from the main export sector wasn’t the problem,” it argued. For PPI’s analysts, two factors were decisive in driving up demand for dollars. On one hand, the transfer of dividends abroad took center stage: outflows totaled US$803 million in June, against US$476 million in all of May. Glustein estimated a similar figure and said that, so far this year, they top US$2.5 billion “the highest figure in the past 10 years.” The second factor PPI mentioned was a drop in corporate debt issuance abroad, which reduced the inflow of dollars into the country. “In June, corporate debt issuance fell to US$1.31 billion, from US$2.169 billion in May,” it estimated. The brokerage Puente, for its part, said the dollar’s move doesn’t reflect a change in economic policy or the exchange-rate regime, “but mostly headwinds on the international front.” “The global strength of the dollar, stemming from a hawkish read of the Federal Reserve, and the drop in oil prices put pressure on emerging-market currencies, and on net energy exporters in particular,” it argued. The road ahead Glustein said the dollar’s trend is upward and forecast that it would land in the 1,520-1,570 peso range in July if current conditions hold. “On top of that, we’re a year out from the elections, and portfolios are starting to shift into dollars,” he noted. While the inflow of dollars from farm exports is expected to stop contributing to currency supply for the rest of the year, there’s a change from previous years: the boom in energy exports, which don’t depend on seasonality. “I think it can offset the historical dollar shortage of the second half especially with seasonal demand from the cold in the global north,” Glustein said. He added, though, that “it will depend a lot on how the conflict in the Middle East is resolved, and where Argentina might stand in that international energy market by then.”