Argentine retail sales down 3.2% in April, with household defaults at a 20-year high

Consumer spending still isn’t picking up, according to the latest private surveys, casting doubt on the economic recovery President Javier Milei has been promising for the months ahead. Retail sales fell 3.2% year-on-year in April and were down 1.3% from the previous month, according to a survey released by the Argentine Confederation of Medium-Sized Businesses (CAME). Through the first four months of the year, sales are running 3.5% below the same period last year. “Activity leaned toward essentials and seasonal items, with shoppers driven by the hunt for financing and discounts,” CAME said. Pharmacies were the only category to grow year-on-year, posting a 6.1% rise. “Because these are essential goods, transactions kept flowing even as price lists were updated,” the business chamber said. Sales fell across most other categories: housewares and home dcor (-12.3%), perfumery (-7.2%), and hardware, electrical supplies and construction materials (-4.2%).  Textiles and apparel were down 3.7%, food and beverages 3.1% and footwear and leather goods 0.5%. Beyond the drop in food and beverages the category most closely tied to everyday consumption there’s been a shift in what Argentines are putting in their carts: demand is moving toward cheaper brands and the volume per shopping ticket is shrinking. CAME also said households are reaching for ways to stretch their budgets, and that bank promotions and discounts have become the main lever keeping sales from falling further. E-commerce isn’t filling the gap Online shopping is picking up among Argentine consumers, the report showed. In April, online sales by brick-and-mortar retailers were up 8% year-on-year and 0.7% from the previous month, seasonally adjusted. Even so, that wasn’t enough to offset the broader decline in CAME’s retail sales index. A similar pattern showed up in a survey by the private consultancy Scentia Consulting. E-commerce jumped 34.3% year-on-year, while pharmacies rose 0.9% in March, but the overall average was still 5.1% below a year earlier. E-commerce has become a flashpoint in the debate over economic policy. Milei has dismissed the surveys showing falling household consumption, arguing they “aren’t reliable indicators” because shopping habits have changed. “I’d look at the balance sheets of the e-commerce companies,” the president said. “The way people consume has changed. You buy a lot of things on Mercado Libre.” Households fall behind Meanwhile, 1816, one of the consultancies most closely followed by local investors, has again flagged the jump in household loan defaults. According to its analysis, they continued to rise in March, hitting their highest level in more than two decades and further squeezing disposable income. Household loan delinquency climbed from 11.2% in February to 11.5% in March, according to official Central Bank (BCRA) data. “Keep in mind that household credit delinquency was just 2.5% in October 2024, so it has nearly quintupled in less than a year and a half, even as GDP grew 1.8% over the same period,” 1816 said. The official response came from Central Bank President Santiago Bausili in late April, who argued that “the first wave of credit was, in a way, extended blindly. Without knowing who the money was being lent to.” “That learning curve ran straight into last year’s interest-rate shock, which made the challenge worse,” he added. High household debt and rising defaults are weighing on the recovery. In its latest report, the center-right think tank Fundacin Capital argued that “the authorities’ bet is to jumpstart activity through credit,” as happened in late 2024 and early 2025. “But the impact is likely to be limited given weak corporate demand for financing and high household default rates,” the report said, adding that “durable goods could show stronger momentum, with moderate traction from credit.”